Michiganders to experience typical weather conditions this winter

As the winter season quickly approaches, Central Michigan University earth and atmospheric sciences faculty member Daria Kluver forecasts more snow than last winter, though Michiganders have no reason to expect more snow than average.

 

“A big factor for Michigan winter weather is the El Niño,” Kluver said. “Based on current conditions, it is likely that Michigan will experience slightly warmer than average temperatures this winter and average precipitation amounts.”

 

Kluver says that during a warm El Niño event, warm equatorial Pacific sea surface temperatures move from the western to the eastern equatorial Pacific, causing a change in the location of a large area of low atmospheric pressure. The subtropical jet stream strengthens and moves to the north, impacting the southern states.

 

Also impacted is the polar jet stream, which affects Michigan directly. The polar jet stream is pushed farther north, and because Michigan is located south of the jet stream, the state has warmer than average temperatures.

 

“Right now there is a very weak El Niño signal in the tropical Pacific with temperatures 0.5 to 1.0 degree Celsius warmer than normal,” Kluver said. “A large group of climate models from around the world forecast the weak El Niño signals to continue and in some cases even weaken into the late winter season.”

 

Kluver says this winter, those in Mount Pleasant can expect approximately 24 inches of snow, the average amount of snowfall for the city between November and February, according to the Midwestern Regional Climate Center. An average amount of snowfall means Michigan can expect a typical winter filled with snowmen, snowboarding and all other snow-related activities.

 

“Even though we will have slightly warmer temperatures, once the average temperatures fall below freezing we should get normal amounts of snowfall,” Kluver said. “I hope Michiganders enjoy all of their usual winter hobbies with a more average snowfall season.”